A decade after the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that polarised the country and caused chaos, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."
New Title Seeks to Stir Debate
The team have analysed the political, financial and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue this point is imminent, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unification has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in universities but hardly any politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, no writer advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Both writes two essays that strive for impartiality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling financial and social figures, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions encompass flags and symbols, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they prefer unification but reject increased taxation or adopting a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government should establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent official who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid arguments, he stated. "Somebody will succeed here and the other side will in the end not succeed but all factions has has valuable insights to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Appeal for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should join the debate, said O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."
