🔗 Share this article

Typically, the NFL's Coach of the Year award adheres to a straightforward formula. It commonly acts as a form of mea culpa. We regret we got wrong your team in our preseason projections.

In theory, it's a direct path: the skipper who engineered the largest resurgence wins the prize. In reality, it creates an yearly debate about expectations and whether we're actually honoring superior coaching or merely the most shocking surprise.

However the current field is fundamentally different. The list of nominees is unusually strong. It has been the campaign of turnarounds. The league has been messy, with reigning division winners fading and recent strugglers ascending collectively. During an ordinary season, Sean Payton leading the Denver Broncos to the top of the conference would make him the overwhelming favorite. But in this wild and entertaining season, he's up against five other outstanding candidates.

Below is how the projected vote should be structured.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Coach of the Year voters are fascinated by signal-callers. History shows this. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. If you transform a quarterback, you're well on your way home.

The Bears' head coach hasn't just fixed his young quarterback; he's freed him. Given a proper ecosystem, the QB has been given the chance to display his rare talent. Since Week 9, the Bears sit at number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a brief surge – it's prolonged excellence. Under his guidance, the quarterback has become more confident, less careless, and has eagerly submitted to the system instead of freelancing. It is an attack constructed solely in Johnson's image: a bully-ball ground attack, a consistent dose of play-action passes and a innovative passing attack that creates wide-open targets everywhere. The QB has capitalized. And when openings weren't there, he's been capable to spin big plays out of nothing.

Johnson came to Chicago with a clear offensive vision. Virtually every gamble – overhauling the trenches, utilizing the pass-catchers, transforming Williams into a timing-based passer – has worked. This is rare for a rookie head coach. And it's even more uncommon still for a leader who entered the building with the immense expectations Johnson did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the most sought-after candidate on the head coaching market. However when it comes to hiring a leader, there are no guarantees. Remarkably, Johnson has met the hype – and even surpassed them. He's proven not only to be a scheme dork but the kind of leader that can breathe fresh energy into an franchise.

During a typical season, Johnson would be the overwhelming favorite. But this isn't a typical year!

The area where Johnson's case comes a bit into trouble is on defense. The Chicago defense currently rank 25th in defensive efficiency. They are relying on turnovers, and turnovers are famously unreliable. Defensive minds can stress creating turnovers, but no one can guarantee it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offense is real. He's not higher because luck is doing too much of the defense's work. With a few bounces of the ball, the Bears would be several victories behind. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the foundation is established for long-term success. However Johnson falls short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable spot to Johnson. He's another rookie leader who has orchestrated a rapid turnaround. Over the crucial final weeks of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest overall football of his professional life. And he's also overseen the remaking of a defensive unit that now sits at fifth in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more notably, he has nailed the off-field aspects, which wasn't a guarantee after his initial press conference introduction and some of his offseason moves.

The coach took over the Jaguars with an uncommonly raw staff. In contrast to other coaches, who surrounded their staff with the perfect coaching mix of new ideas and veteran savvy, Coen hired first-timers. From the leader himself to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with first-timers. That kind of setup is intriguing on paper, but often fails in reality – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everybody is figuring out a new job in real-time. Yet Coen has pulled everyone and all elements into sync.

After an early hot beginning, there was a chance that the season would go off the rails. A mid-year collapse had the Jags wobbling again. That's typically when leaders overcorrect. He did not. Instead, he streamlined things. Jacksonville stopped pursuing explosive plays and started seeking reliable ones. Coen refocused the offense around key players and the running game, and encouraged Lawrence to use his mobility more.

The results are clear. The Jaguars have won seven games consecutively and will be the conference's No 3 seed. Coen receives the tiniest knock in the rankings because he inherited a talented team, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Every Strong of the Year case has a hinge decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB choice.

Moving on from a incumbent, bringing in a different quarterback and partnering him with an innovative offensive coordinator could have derailed the season in the early weeks. Instead, it made it. Through the middle point of the year, the new QB was an MVP contender. He has regressed since that hot streak, slipping to 23rd in EPA per pass attempt over the second half of the season, putting him only one place ahead of other QBs.

Still